MLB best bets: Predictions, odds, expert Picks for Thursday 5/2

Rockies vs. Marlins

Thursday, May 2, 12:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8.5 | Play to 7.5 (BetMGM)

By D.J. James

Despite playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the league, the Rockies don't have many good hitters. Miami hasn't exactly blown teams away either and with reasonable enough pitching going in this game, runs should be at a premium.

Lambert has effectively operated as an opener and has yet to pitch into the fourth inning this season. He has only walked four batters and has struck out 15. His bread-and-butter has been keeping the ball on the ground as his ground-ball rate ranks in the 79th percentile. He has also fared well when it comes to limiting barrels. Hard contact has been an issue, at times, but otherwise, he can hold a subpar lineup in check.

The Rockies only have three bats with an xwOBA over .330 against righties — that means six of their nine hitters are below average. Colorado strikes out over 27% of the time when an opponent against right-handed pitchers and has a walk rate under 8%. In short, Marlins starter Edward Cabrera will get favorable results against this subpar lineup.

Cabrera has the ability to be elite. He has a tendency to walk batters from time-to-time, but has gotten that number below 10% this year. His 5.28 ERA against a 3.41 xERA indicates favorable future results. His Average Exit Velocity is under 84 mph and he also boasts an elite strikeout rate (over 30%).

Simply put, these teams are atrocious at hitting the ball. Both pitchers can keep the ball on the ground, and Cabrera should rack up strikeouts with ease. Additionally, the bullpens have enough to keep these hitters in check. Take the under in Miami and play it to 7.5.

Pick: Under 8.5 | Play to 7.5

Cubs vs. Mets

Thursday, May 2, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 8.5 | Play to -105 (Caesars)

By Tony Sartori

This total isn't set high enough (8.5) in a pitching matchup between Ben Brown and Adrian Houser, both of whom are winless with ERA's north of 4.29. Houser's underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the fifth percentile or lower in pitching run value, xERA and average exit velocity.

Brown also ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in both xERA and average exit velocity, but may be on an extremely short leash anyways as he has bounced between the rotation and bullpen. However, even if Brown is chased early, we shouldn't trust Chicago's bullpen, which ranks in the bottom nine of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

New York's bullpen is much stronger, which is likely the only reason this total is not set at nine. With that said, the Cubs are hitting well and rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Finally, there have been nine or more total runs scored in each of Houser's five starts this season.

Pick: Over 8.5 | Play to -105

Giants vs. Red Sox

Thursday, May 2, 1:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Giants Moneyline | Play to -125 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Kyle Harrison was a top prospect for a reason. He has an elite fastball, and although he struggles with his off-speed pitches, his command is great. He is only walking 3.6% of hitters and has an xERA below 4.00. His strikeout numbers have hovered around 23%, but he could see a spike, especially on Thursday against the Boston Red Sox.

Josh Winckowski will throw for Boston, and he has been the recipient of some favorable results. He keeps the ball on the ground and limits barrels, but his walk rate and strikeout rate are average. Yes, ground-ball pitchers can get away with hard contact more often than most, but his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 10th percentile.

Overall, Boston has the better bullpen, but the Giants have Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval to lock down close games. Since Harrison doesn't walk many, expect him to pitch deep into this game. He has gone six innings four times already this season.

Take the Giants from -105 to -125.

Pick: Giants Moneyline | Play to -125